US Fed signals hawkish stance, copper prices fall overnight [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

SMM News on June 19: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,668/mt, hitting a high of $9,694.5/mt at the beginning of the session before fluctuating downward throughout the session, touching a low of $9,648/mt near the close, and eventually closing at $9,650.5/mt, down 0.2%. Trading volume reached 13,000 lots, and open interest reached 291,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2507 contract opened at 78,640 yuan/mt, hitting a high of 78,700 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session before fluctuating downward to touch a low of 78,500 yuan/mt during the session. It fluctuated rangebound near the close and eventually closed at 78,610 yuan/mt, down 0.01%. Trading volume reached 19,000 lots, and open interest reached 181,000 lots. On the macro front, the US Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected. In its statement, policymakers maintained their expectation of two interest rate cuts this year, but the number of officials expecting no rate cuts this year increased, and the expectation of rate cuts next year was reduced to one. Powell continued to emphasize uncertainties and predicted that "high inflation" would emerge in the coming months. The US dollar index rose, exerting bearish pressure on copper prices. On the fundamental front, spot premiums for copper cathode fluctuated significantly, with notable differences among brands. Yesterday, suppliers rushed to sell due to concerns about subsequent warrant outflows, and Russian copper was also sold at low prices, impacting the market. It is expected that there will still be downside room for premiums after warrant outflows today. In summary, given the presence of bearish factors, it is expected that copper prices will struggle to continue rising today.